Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8108efa832554bdfb39e51e230c224a6136c8bb84532ecb2e0d526dd964099a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 72c | 2,999$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.42 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 2,981$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.87 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 659.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 18c | 557.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 520$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 18c | 453.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 344.83$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2db…31cabacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 71c | 325.01$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 21c | 321.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 21c | 314.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 176.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 28c | 162.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 75c | 77.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…4f5ebacked Yes | 28c | 55.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…6cc9backed Yes | 29c | 49.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3396…759fbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.