NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5364a81968b13b38b88223b8a10715dede45db8b4a79c7dc6eb6544287f177a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 53c | 4,046$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…4badbacked Under | 49c | 2,857$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,767$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.7 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 622.1$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.61 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Over | 50c | 198.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 174.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 98.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1ea2backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 47c | 90.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 53c | 68.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 49c | 66.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 49c | 65.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 58.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…dc19backed Over | 52c | 35.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…e29fbacked Over | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f2…36d6backed Over | 48c | 24.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd5…feb9backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a0…763abacked Under | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…c753backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.