NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f32d83ccda9c8ebc26c31c5bbe8ac7833821f9c1e08d9b72cf75c103e1fb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 26c | 294.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.82 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 18c | 136.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 31c | 104.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…af8abacked Over | 29c | 89.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 30c | 62.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 36c | 52.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Under | 49c | 51.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 31.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 63c | 29.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 73c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 66c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…3710backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…ac64backed Under | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5this page
- Panthers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.