NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba5523ee3b64aa8fef0318f96e4f6fbd8627b09da7df79def101f79f4f18dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6238…0523backed Panthers | 61c | 999.98$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Penguins | 61c | 992.61$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.12 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Panthers | 39c | 978.39$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Penguins | 39c | 619.39$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.83 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Penguins | 43c | 301.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.01 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 67c | 233.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…1053backed Penguins | 45c | 196$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Panthers | 33c | 143.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Panthers | 55c | 136.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Penguins | 45c | 136.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Penguins | 54c | 125.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 44c | 123.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Panthers | 54c | 112.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…29ffbacked Panthers | 55c | 98.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Panthers | 55c | 93.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…bd4dbacked Penguins | 46c | 92.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +9.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Panthers | 62c | 76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Panthers | 33c | 75.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Penguins | 77c | 63.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…a0c9backed Panthers | 55c | 62.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Panthers | 45c | 54.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Penguins | 67c | 53.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Panthers | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Panthers | 29c | 46.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Penguins | 56c | 44.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Penguins | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Penguins | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 37c | 39.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Penguins | 62c | 34.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins | 60c | 31.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3f…c002backed Panthers | 55c | 30.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Panthers | 54c | 29.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Penguins | 45c | 28.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Panthers | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Panthers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.