Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc593ae923ab9dc1a4ff1284da61a195e96b5eefc9a27413a870ee1062ec31e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Execration, Direborn
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Direborn | 28c | 1,904$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.55 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Direborn | 34c | 1,499$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.73 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Execration | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration | 70c | 992$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Execration | 67c | 558$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.27 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Direborn | 10c | 409.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Direborn | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Direborn | 48c | 310.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Execration | 72c | 293.47$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Direborn | 10c | 183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Execration | 50c | 182.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…bd2abacked Execration | 72c | 165.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Execration | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Execration | 68c | 134.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Execration | 60c | 127.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Execration | 65c | 120.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Execration | 72c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 50c | 81.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…2d93backed Execration | 67c | 74.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…3393backed Execration | 55c | 72.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…9187backed Direborn | 28c | 71.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Execration | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Direborn | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Direborn | 25c | 51.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Execration | 64c | 46.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Execration | 72c | 44.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Execration | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…e494backed Direborn | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Execration | 51c | 29.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Execration | 59c | 23.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Execration | 68c | 23.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsExecration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.