Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a5409c73fce537532f46044df0690958b1a944615d157afbe98f95fd405339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,482$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 544.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 3c | 349$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 241.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 156.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 154.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 102.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 552 | 59.1%326 W · 226 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 25.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.