Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a04e8ea7cc955e00490992d64dec9e201bcaaa530317c0d69a7a177d185741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 404.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 78c | 329.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 198.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 33c | 188.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 176.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed No | 75c | 147.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 27c | 140.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 138.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 124.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 73c | 112.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 100.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 86.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 24c | 85.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 81.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 26c | 67.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 59.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 77c | 56.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 53.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…9f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 46.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 44.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 37.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 73c | 36.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 76c | 35.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…ae3ebacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 30.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 30.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 30.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 27.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 62c | 25.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 66c | 16.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.