Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x238b981b5c167c4e2dc95c540432a50eb1bf278fab2f686642dd704b6426c11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 56c | 752.85$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.77 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 5c | 392.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 323.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 307.36$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 306.71$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 262.43$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 248.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 66c | 231.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 40c | 225.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.56 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 27c | 207.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 58c | 172.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 44c | 169.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 23c | 167.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 152.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 148.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 43c | 139.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 129.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 129.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 47c | 117.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 111.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 53c | 109.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 35c | 96.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 46c | 91.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 89.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 89.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 47c | 88.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 53c | 86.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 40c | 85.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 58c | 83.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 77.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 76c | 75.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 73.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 45c | 72.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 61c | 67.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 66.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 53c | 65.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 39c | 54.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Yes | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…02a8backed No | 57c | 49.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 45.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 45.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 41.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 35.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 63c | 33.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…5919backed Yes | 58c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 31.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 47c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 30.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 46c | 30.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked Yes | 44c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 57c | 28.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 50c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 42c | 27.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 25.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 56c | 24.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…bd7cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 57c | 18.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.