Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ukraine vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ea84752506776f83e55b65f361e144e35265e2b847493bd8bc3c1f60c21b9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes | 13c | 1,462$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 13c | 600.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 38c | 218.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 138.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 66c | 72.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…2037backed Yes | 29c | 69.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc21…9eb9backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine vs. Azerbaijan end in a draw?this page
- Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-10-13?No won
- Will Ukraine win on 2025-10-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.