Tennis · resolved market
Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Ergi Kirkin vs Ilya Ivashka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5f80192f6e6ed0c2dc9ce4004c471a4c9b59b39f969c436bf69331938e150b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilya Ivashkaof Ergi Kirkin, Ilya Ivashka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ergi Kirkin | 23c | 22,227$5,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,076.37 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ergi Kirkin | 21c | 6,288$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.69 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Ergi Kirkin | 21c | 2,065$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.63 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Ergi Kirkin | 3c | 1,521$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ergi Kirkin | 28c | 1,500$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Ergi Kirkin | 18c | 1,185$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…704cbacked Ergi Kirkin | 23c | 860.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 18.1%26 W · 118 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ergi Kirkin | 17c | 784.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…1d15backed Ilya Ivashka | 72c | 653.74$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.74 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ergi Kirkin | 13c | 618.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Ergi Kirkin | 17c | 552.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ergi Kirkin | 11c | 548$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Ergi Kirkin | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Ilya Ivashka | 74c | 312.46$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 430 | 54.9%236 W · 194 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Ergi Kirkin | 17c | 294.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Ergi Kirkin | 38c | 248.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Ilya Ivashka | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ergi Kirkin | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…688cbacked Ergi Kirkin | 21c | 193.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Ergi Kirkin | 13c | 189.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Ergi Kirkin | 26c | 138.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Ergi Kirkin | 37c | 133.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ergi Kirkin | 12c | 127.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Ergi Kirkin | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Ilya Ivashka | 61c | 62.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Ergi Kirkin | 23c | 60.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Ilya Ivashka | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ergi Kirkin | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Ilya Ivashka | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Ergi Kirkin | 41c | 33.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Ilya Ivashka | 67c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Ilya Ivashka | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…38a6backed Ilya Ivashka | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Ilya Ivashka | 69c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 259 | 51.7%134 W · 125 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Ilya Ivashka | 69c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 350 | 39.4%138 W · 212 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Ergi Kirkin vs Ilya Ivashkathis page
- Set Handicap: Kirkin (-1.5) vs Ivashka (+1.5)Ivashka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.