Premier League · resolved market
Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60287b6d10f71b002b7453f4742ec01ee73ca0def788cb9dc6133f3cb940fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 2,999$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.61 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 2,027$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.58 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 240 | 47.5%114 W · 126 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 45c | 1,207$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.99 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Under | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,106$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.1 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 870.24$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.63 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 57c | 701.86$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 644.82$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 44c | 543.82$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.55 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 282.07$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 238.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 58c | 201.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 45c | 137.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Under | 57c | 122.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 77.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…973fbacked Under | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 35c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…13fbbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cbf8backed Over | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 2.5this page
- Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 1.5Over won
- Everton vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Everton (-1.5)Everton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.