Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60692f40509d147d2d8a9f48c4e95bc9d9c476a3d245090218c339a58d705d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 73c | 1,074$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.07 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 313.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 303.94$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 290$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 8c | 151.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.17 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 37c | 130.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 126$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 124.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Yes | 26c | 112.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 106.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 98.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 92.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 32c | 89.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 32c | 79.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 76.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 24c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 64.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 63.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 24c | 51.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 25c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 40.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 38.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 38.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 38.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 36.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 31.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 40c | 31.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 69c | 29.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 74c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 23.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 15.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 77°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.