College Football · resolved market
Illinois vs. Northwestern
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60771ede033ebf70e0ff5d2cc3c67b91740fa1c52d534dae328da5120aa80d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4741…6cf0backed Illinois | 75c | 8,527$6,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Northwestern | 25c | 4,238$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.3 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Northwestern | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed Northwestern | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Northwestern | 24c | 1,358$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.82 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…978abacked Illinois | 76c | 986.84$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Northwestern | 3c | 464.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Northwestern | 23c | 450.13$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6b…1262backed Illinois | 77c | 325.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Northwestern | 23c | 220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Northwestern | 7c | 212.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331f…7966backed Northwestern | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Illinois | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Northwestern | 26c | 123.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Northwestern | 23c | 116.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…a0debacked Illinois | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Illinois | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…5b89backed Northwestern | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…0596backed Northwestern | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…25d9backed Illinois | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…75f3backed Illinois | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Illinois | 76c | 69.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Northwestern | 29c | 69.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Illinois | 76c | 68.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Illinois | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed Illinois | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Northwestern | 24c | 55.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Illinois | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Illinois | 77c | 44.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Northwestern | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Northwestern | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Illinois | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Northwestern | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Illinois | 71c | 26.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Illinois | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 71cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…2a9abacked Illinois | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Illinois | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.