Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60abd320045cae60bde1a4ef61c26b16e745be6c2122f0026926f84555c2151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 33c | 1,307$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 264 | 33.7%89 W · 175 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 79c | 377.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 206$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 196.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 3,046 | 33.5%1,021 W · 2,025 L | +12.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 183.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 178.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 32c | 175.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 294 | 42.2%124 W · 170 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 128.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 127$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 66c | 126.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 114.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 95.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 922 | 61.8%570 W · 352 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 80.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 77.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 73.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 74c | 67.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 79c | 63.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 72c | 55.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 51.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 46.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552f…de02backed Yes | 35c | 45.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 42.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 41.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 32c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…9240backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 78c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,046 | 68.7%719 W · 327 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 76c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.