Movies · resolved market
Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc611293e842335cf3421c49d4f177df646c5abbad86a5d13e59003f968b2b1cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 797.83$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…6338backed Yes | 63c | 791.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 24c | 600.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 44c | 351.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 34c | 250$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 61c | 222$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 52c | 182.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…1d19backed Yes | 73c | 173.11$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 52c | 150.19$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 58c | 101.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 31c | 73.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Apex" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.