Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc61fdda5829ca2457f99207a039f080093cca892a96ff0dc47ee53176f2fb0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,507 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f31…455fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,637$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb66…5c91backed Yes | 34c | 2,572$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…350abacked No | 66c | 1,362$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de7…bf6abacked No | 66c | 1,305$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,279$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…fea0backed No | 66c | 1,275$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…0a67backed No | 66c | 1,267$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 416.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 376.6$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 309.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 200.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 72c | 199.73$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 12c | 194.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 187.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 184.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 182.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 70c | 153$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 30c | 149.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 144.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 130.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 35c | 129.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 98.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 93.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 34c | 91.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 89.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 83.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 34c | 80.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 27c | 78.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 30c | 77.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 76.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 26c | 75.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 73.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 74c | 71.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 69.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 66.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 60.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 57.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 64c | 56.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 29c | 56.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 55.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 52.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 37c | 52.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 76c | 51.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…51c5backed Yes | 35c | 48.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 44.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 31c | 40.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 64c | 39.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 37.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 71c | 37.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 36.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 72c | 36.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 32.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 68c | 28.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…280cbacked No | 71c | 28.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…044cbacked No | 71c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 67c | 28.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…ed24backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 25.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 79c | 22.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…6fc0backed No | 69c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 66c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 66c | 15.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 76c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.