Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e946ed7ad76f7cb0d5f642b95946504a0d1a6779100c107d929cf25f2a4e81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,202$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.31 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 315.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 60c | 196.17$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 54c | 166.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 165.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 75c | 146.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 121.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 112.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…ed24backed No | 73c | 105.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 76c | 105.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 12c | 97.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 95.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 38c | 91.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 79.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 75c | 79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 60c | 69.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…e3babacked No | 74c | 66.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 34c | 64.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…9996backed Yes | 25c | 55.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…f40ebacked Yes | 27c | 52.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 50.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 24c | 45.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 43.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…8fb5backed Yes | 23c | 42.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 41.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 41.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 73c | 41.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 40.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 29c | 39.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 60c | 36.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked Yes | 62c | 36.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 64c | 36.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…a8fcbacked No | 64c | 35.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed No | 59c | 34.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 69c | 33.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 31.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 27.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 25.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…4056backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 14.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.