Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c2823635abfa5f7d664846df1f341010da5945e2cfc7f8e6b3d12acf139e3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 440.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 289.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 280$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 17c | 196.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 151.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 144.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 79c | 135.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 119.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 32c | 112.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 94.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 27c | 91.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed Yes | 25c | 87.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 73.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 30c | 65.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 61.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 26c | 56.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481f…92f0backed Yes | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 70c | 52.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 77c | 50.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 48.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 23c | 45.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…ae6dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 71c | 37.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…10d8backed No | 79c | 34.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…f8a3backed No | 75c | 30.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…c7a6backed No | 76c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 77c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 63°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.