NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc664c6b837ead814a5fa0509ec4875e2e6de6563c56c85b50f890c34706d3deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 31,151$15,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,334.39 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 50c | 20,881$10,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,440.53 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 10,216$5,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,905.84 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 50c | 5,000$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.3 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,730$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 47c | 1,973$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.43 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 1,764$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.72 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 50c | 994.86$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.43 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 52c | 955.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 48c | 625.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.51 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 443.98$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.31 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Over | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 51c | 299.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 51c | 250$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 75c | 241.97$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 223.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 49c | 109.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 81.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Over | 53c | 47.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 49c | 40.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…e438backed Over | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…8bb8backed Over | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 49c | 39.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 51c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. KrakenKraken won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.