Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b8c337291c8ed5966a5d02299d54fd9d6e526771c93722397209bc5be13e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Team Lynx, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedce…412ebacked Team Lynx | 8c | 1,641$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Lynx | 18c | 1,136$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.82 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed L1ga Team | 59c | 1,089$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.77 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed L1ga Team | 69c | 1,029$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.18 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Lynx | 30c | 746.3$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 40c | 741.21$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.48 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 68c | 636.74$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 29c | 603.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Lynx | 38c | 532.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 67c | 448.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.36 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 38c | 432.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Team Lynx | 16c | 312.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed Team Lynx | 38c | 284.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Team Lynx | 40c | 237$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked L1ga Team | 68c | 233.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…9b3dbacked L1ga Team | 56c | 223.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 47c | 211.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 207.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed L1ga Team | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked L1ga Team | 58c | 110.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed Team Lynx | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed Team Lynx | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed L1ga Team | 67c | 88.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…d4c9backed Team Lynx | 48c | 62.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Lynx | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed L1ga Team | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…2025backed L1ga Team | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team (BO3) - CCT PlayoffsL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.