Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6fbc87c36916b100dfadc49678ff98024a4836d57af1e99a843b47abcf2444f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 250.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 155.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 132.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 132.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 130.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 35c | 119$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | +17.0wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 76c | 98.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 97.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 68.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 62.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 66c | 61.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 40c | 57.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 55.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 51.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 55c | 51.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…0a3cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 76c | 39.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 63c | 38.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 47c | 38.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 52c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…c03fbacked Yes | 43c | 26.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 22.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 69c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…1653backed Yes | 56c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 54c | 18.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.