Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70bdffdd04356bfd10581469c2725adf5930b6b5c6e115ed7710cf2e1466799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,032 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 55c | 1,120$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,048$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…449dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…4278backed Yes | 70c | 700$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 29c | 678.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.73 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…849abacked Yes | 22c | 430.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 55c | 363.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 847 | 45.9%389 W · 458 L | +50.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…04f2backed No | 79c | 221.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 44c | 94.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…b4ebbacked Yes | 71c | 78.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Yes | 41c | 55.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed Yes | 41c | 39.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…256cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…43f8backed Yes | 57c | 26.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af9…5bf2backed No | 72c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…6b01backed Yes | 48c | 24.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 25?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 on March 25?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on March 25?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.