Tennis · resolved market
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Yosuke Watanuki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc716feec93215d941de314fd205dee21da18506750e52d1ddf973fa59d95e3fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cezar Cretuof Cezar Cretu, Yosuke Watanuki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yosuke Watanuki | 10c | 5,506$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.72 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yosuke Watanuki | 35c | 3,760$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.1 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Cezar Cretu | 74c | 1,543$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.58 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Yosuke Watanuki | 9c | 1,385$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cezar Cretu | 77c | 1,274$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.68 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Cezar Cretu | 65c | 1,111$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.85 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8716…57c8backed Cezar Cretu | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…df4bbacked Cezar Cretu | 65c | 846.14$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.15 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Yosuke Watanuki | 21c | 814$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.87 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Yosuke Watanuki | 15c | 639.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…b178backed Yosuke Watanuki | 2c | 627.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 334 | 9.6%32 W · 302 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Yosuke Watanuki | 15c | 582.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Cezar Cretu | 64c | 528$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yosuke Watanuki | 10c | 452.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cezar Cretu | 72c | 297.11$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Yosuke Watanuki | 35c | 277.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Yosuke Watanuki | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 8c | 222.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cezar Cretu | 64c | 218$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Cezar Cretu | 77c | 216.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -7.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked Yosuke Watanuki | 6c | 180.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Yosuke Watanuki | 34c | 173.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yosuke Watanuki | 35c | 173.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yosuke Watanuki | 15c | 156.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yosuke Watanuki | 23c | 153.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cezar Cretu | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…8181backed Cezar Cretu | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 812 | 56.2%456 W · 356 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec9…e4f8backed Cezar Cretu | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cezar Cretu | 67c | 112.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yosuke Watanuki | 20c | 108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cezar Cretu | 65c | 104$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Cezar Cretu | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cezar Cretu | 64c | 89.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 15c | 81.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Yosuke Watanuki | 28c | 53.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 783 | 50.3%394 W · 389 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yosuke Watanuki | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Cezar Cretu | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cezar Cretu | 64c | 49.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 48.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Cezar Cretu | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Cezar Cretu | 75c | 39.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Yosuke Watanuki | 36c | 34.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 318 | 41.8%133 W · 185 L | -16.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Yosuke Watanuki | 36c | 27.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Cezar Cretu | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Cezar Cretu | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Cezar Cretu | 78c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.