NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc73d3b4b585448199e2377ea4e0111a40207b96eaa91748640d78074f3cd96d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 20,221$9,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,819.75 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 54c | 20,000$10,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,700 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 53c | 262$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 47c | 234$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 205$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 44c | 113.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 52c | 101.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…774abacked Under | 54c | 87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Under | 73c | 68.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6ffbbacked Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…5c68backed Over | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 34.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 46c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…e936backed Under | 55c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 42.5this page
- Dolphins vs. JetsDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 40.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.