NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6051b5b23ae36f2bcc7a41b574f7498cdda9b0e712e3e562e0be09eef65a0e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 59,860$29,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,828.61 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 27,247$14,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,168.44 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 17,711$9,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,209.49 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,672$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 1,766$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.7 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 51c | 1,556$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.56 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 48c | 1,000$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 52c | 364$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Under | 52c | 350$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 183.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 47c | 170.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 153.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0622backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…f8e1backed Under | 52c | 36.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Over | 49c | 35.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Under | 52c | 30.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…29b2backed Under | 52c | 19.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 41.5this page
- Dolphins vs. JetsDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 40.5Over won
- Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.