TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,221
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,221 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over34c2,226$763 inWon+$1,462.7274256.9%422 W · 320 L+46.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over68c1,396$953 inWon+$442.921,04433.3%348 W · 696 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fb…ced4backed Under3c929$28 inLost-$27.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under66c927.71$612 inLost-$612.2977342.8%331 W · 442 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under62c719.02$448 inLost-$448.246,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under53c597.87$317 inLost-$316.871258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over40c500$200 inWon+$30082763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under49c407.25$201 inLost-$200.945935.6%21 W · 38 L-10.8wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-45.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under64c248.38$159 inLost-$159.1191435.3%323 W · 591 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under76c246$187 inLost-$186.961,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under76c245.99$187 inLost-$186.951,24042.2%523 W · 717 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Over35c222$78 inWon+$144.32548%12 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under33c163.15$54 inLost-$53.844,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over67c163.15$109 inWon+$53.841573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Under44c129.25$57 inLost-$56.871717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-50.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe07d…4ee1backed Over35c66$23 inWon+$42.91250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under75c57.44$43 inLost-$43.0896443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f1…f02dbacked Over35c54.51$19 inWon+$35.43875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over22c51$11 inWon+$39.7850450%252 W · 252 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…535dbacked Under78c51$40 inLost-$39.783070%21 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under64c40.56$26 inLost-$26.098464.3%54 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under76c33$25 inLost-$25.0812853.9%69 W · 59 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under80c18.74$15 inLost-$14.9975850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x460c…b5b5backed Under67c17.71$12 inLost-$11.846363.5%40 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f0…285fbacked Under66c16.27$11 inLost-$10.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.