Premier League · resolved market
Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa81e11bb90d56f7cba55e81422fec8410b7c5017aa4d98e0ebfbb3c228088971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 62c | 994.66$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.97 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 845.41$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.83 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 744.79$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.26 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7797…7ddcbacked Under | 62c | 649$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 38c | 592$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.04 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 43c | 413.56$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -10.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 61c | 298.27$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 74c | 221.07$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 59c | 194.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 188.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 44c | 147$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 15c | 141.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Under | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 25c | 77.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 37c | 31.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 44c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…4ee1backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…f02dbacked Over | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: Swindon Town FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)Swindon Town FC won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-2.5)Swindon Town FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-1.5)Cardiff City FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-2.5)Cardiff City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.