Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Cardiff City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0b5ebdabb8a4e5c7642142472247acadc4e1ec9bb29307205b5fd07d3c7530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swindon Town FCof Cardiff City FC, Swindon Town FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Cardiff City FC | 24c | 1,211$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.64 | 812 | 34.7%282 W · 530 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cardiff City FC | 13c | 650.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 285$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 1,208 | 42.2%510 W · 698 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 223.33$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cardiff City FC | 33c | 185$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 772 | 36.4%281 W · 491 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 137$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Swindon Town FC | 70c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Cardiff City FC | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Swindon Town FC | 70c | 74.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Swindon Town FC | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Swindon Town FC | 70c | 20.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Swindon Town FC | 70c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Swindon Town FC | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-2.5)this page
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: Swindon Town FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)Swindon Town FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-1.5)Cardiff City FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-2.5)Cardiff City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.