Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ecff7bf48dad1083f020a378ed5c56cc7932474ee7fd47e02a546d155db68af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swindon Town FCof Cardiff City FC, Swindon Town FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Cardiff City FC | 54c | 17,664$9,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,507.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Swindon Town FC | 48c | 7,887$3,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,140.41 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 3,536$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.65 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Cardiff City FC | 52c | 2,193$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Swindon Town FC | 46c | 1,329$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.71 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Swindon Town FC | 48c | 1,195$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.33 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 1,098$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.24 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cardiff City FC | 42c | 1,017$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.12 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Swindon Town FC | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Swindon Town FC | 46c | 652.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Swindon Town FC | 57c | 565.92$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 525$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.65 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 525$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.65 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Swindon Town FC | 49c | 515.16$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Swindon Town FC | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Swindon Town FC | 46c | 372.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.39 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Swindon Town FC | 46c | 340$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Swindon Town FC | 46c | 321.23$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Swindon Town FC | 48c | 310$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.39 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Swindon Town FC | 47c | 265$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Swindon Town FC | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Swindon Town FC | 48c | 80.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cardiff City FC | 51c | 75.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 66.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Swindon Town FC | 55c | 57.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cardiff City FC | 50c | 56.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cardiff City FC | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Swindon Town FC | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Swindon Town FC | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cardiff City FC | 49c | 28.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Swindon Town FC | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Swindon Town FC | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…d7f4backed Swindon Town FC | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Swindon Town FC | 57c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-1.5)this page
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cardiff City FC vs. Swindon Town FC: Swindon Town FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Cardiff City FC (-2.5)Swindon Town FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-1.5)Cardiff City FC won
- Spread: Swindon Town FC (-2.5)Cardiff City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.