Tennis · resolved market
ITF W75 Kursumlijska Banja 2 Women: Mia Ristic vs Matilde Paoletti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7568fdff79b68d7fb44cf86d6f97e39d7218b6ad0fe319d675239b061c9d637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mia Risticof Mia Ristic, Matilde Paoletti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matilde Paoletti | 12c | 3,569$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.32 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Mia Ristic | 35c | 2,886$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Matilde Paoletti | 5c | 1,892$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 952 | 8.1%77 W · 875 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Mia Ristic | 42c | 795.18$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.38 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mia Ristic | 34c | 700$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 683$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.78 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matilde Paoletti | 57c | 646.57$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.73 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Mia Ristic | 49c | 615.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.06 | 1,836 | 48.4%889 W · 947 L | -32.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Matilde Paoletti | 58c | 547.5$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.55 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Matilde Paoletti | 66c | 471.98$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.51 | 3,621 | 45.3%1,641 W · 1,980 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Matilde Paoletti | 43c | 466.91$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.86 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Matilde Paoletti | 51c | 305.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 805 | 58.6%472 W · 333 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Matilde Paoletti | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 151 | 15.9%24 W · 127 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Matilde Paoletti | 64c | 210.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 201 | 63.2%127 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…c784backed Matilde Paoletti | 25c | 171.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Mia Ristic | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 894 | 35.9%321 W · 573 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 303 | 55.8%169 W · 134 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Mia Ristic | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 941 | 49.5%466 W · 475 L | +17.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 138.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Mia Ristic | 62c | 117.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Matilde Paoletti | 38c | 114.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1,806 | 40.9%739 W · 1,067 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mia Ristic | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Matilde Paoletti | 43c | 83.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 383 | 59.8%229 W · 154 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…3e80backed Mia Ristic | 59c | 82.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 60 | 75%45 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mia Ristic | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 2,142 | 37.3%799 W · 1,343 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Mia Ristic | 46c | 76.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Matilde Paoletti | 50c | 72.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 507 | 46.5%236 W · 271 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Matilde Paoletti | 67c | 71.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,232 | 65.4%806 W · 426 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…29f8backed Mia Ristic | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Mia Ristic | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 229 | 30.6%70 W · 159 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…c9f9backed Mia Ristic | 54c | 62.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Mia Ristic | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1,001 | 38.4%384 W · 617 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 554 | 37.5%208 W · 346 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Mia Ristic | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Matilde Paoletti | 32c | 50.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 421 | 30.2%127 W · 294 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…dd02backed Mia Ristic | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Mia Ristic | 77c | 44.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 207 | 72%149 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Mia Ristic | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,013 | 53.8%545 W · 468 L | +35.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Mia Ristic | 68c | 30.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,071 | 73.9%791 W · 280 L | +41.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Mia Ristic | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 382 | 57.6%220 W · 162 L | +19.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mia Ristic | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Mia Ristic | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 257 | 68.1%175 W · 82 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mia Ristic | 49c | 20.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 742 | 46.4%344 W · 398 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mia Ristic | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 599 | 41.1%246 W · 353 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Mia Ristic | 78c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 1,545 | 51.5%795 W · 750 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.