College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-31.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc771f57b2d41b85438702ca1e96f038e4ec416b491960f1c1688c398c14c84d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Oregon, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon | 50c | 15,425$7,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,641.18 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 13,841$6,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,977.96 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 5,100$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 3,557$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.31 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Oregon | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 800$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.51 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Oregon | 47c | 799.94$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.97 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oregon | 39c | 530.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.91 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 47c | 456.92$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Oregon | 47c | 294.87$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.59 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Oregon | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Oregon | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Oregon | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oregon | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-31.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-33.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. OregonOregon won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon: O/U 43.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.