College Football · resolved market
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9dc08ffda69a195b4d726d8a9f3bb9b16a2981b325a7e98d44d6a731156da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Wisconsin Badgers, Oregon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 9c | 42,068$3,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,865.05 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 10,782$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 9c | 10,007$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.36 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 6,788$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…a1e9backed Wisconsin Badgers | 6c | 3,985$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Wisconsin Badgers | 4c | 1,955$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 3c | 1,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 1,491$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Wisconsin Badgers | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…00fbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 3c | 932.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 888.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 5c | 834.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 826$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…d14bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 3c | 671.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 8c | 588.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 580.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 526.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 3c | 490.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 7c | 400.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wisconsin Badgers | 4c | 309.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…d779backed Wisconsin Badgers | 5c | 292.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…5897backed Wisconsin Badgers | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…8b61backed Wisconsin Badgers | 6c | 194.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Wisconsin Badgers | 9c | 118$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregonthis page
- O/U 45.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-31.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Oregon (-33.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon: O/U 43.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon: O/U 44.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.