Asian League · resolved market
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77d45424a77887ae8b5831c58c98e652cd629e6eaf57859e4cb0a6b2e09046a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,748 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 665.59$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…13cabacked Under | 77c | 503$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 12c | 390.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3d72backed Over | 27c | 373$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…144abacked Over | 27c | 356$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa879…fff5backed Under | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd460…267dbacked Over | 27c | 288$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8739backed Over | 27c | 248$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…1dfabacked Under | 73c | 247$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505b…93bebacked Over | 27c | 231$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…2e2bbacked Under | 78c | 218$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d1…b4a2backed Under | 73c | 198$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 193.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…b31ebacked Under | 73c | 172$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…d236backed Under | 73c | 161$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…67dcbacked Under | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Over | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…ceedbacked Under | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -11.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 29c | 41.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 75c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.