Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7885d5a439b285ba2fa7a0551e1a7848fdc5b35c8c8a47246f6aef17c87e91f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,049$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 645.92$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 569.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.27 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 46c | 519.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.16 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 458.46$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.44 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 449.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 32c | 441.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 295.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 70c | 273.85$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 48c | 273.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 75c | 268.26$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.66 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 259.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 252.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed No | 8c | 237.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 25c | 173.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 12c | 171.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…14abbacked No | 9c | 160.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 29c | 135.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 130.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 114.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 55c | 110.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 110.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 108.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 107.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 17c | 102.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 96.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 67c | 94.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 65c | 93.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 22c | 84.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…fad1backed Yes | 54c | 78.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 80c | 76.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 23c | 70.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked No | 23c | 61.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 49c | 59.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…65ddbacked Yes | 34c | 58.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 58.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 53.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 48c | 53.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 51.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 75c | 51.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 27c | 49.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 65c | 49.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 49.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 54c | 48.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed No | 51c | 43.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 45c | 42.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 30c | 37.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 76c | 36.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 68c | 35.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 73c | 32.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 64c | 30.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7970…3450backed No | 63c | 30.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 29.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 27.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 74c | 26.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…d7c9backed No | 77c | 23.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 23.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 60c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…8303backed Yes | 79c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 71c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…5ed5backed No | 77c | 18.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 58c | 17.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…3facbacked No | 77c | 15.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 82°F or higher on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.