Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7952d38ef206b64d509ae0d09d5b5e18420912f9f861f3eb3388dea060ec9a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Kalmychata, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 65c | 1,722$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.72 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Kalmychata | 57c | 1,646$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.37 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Most Wanted | 39c | 1,250$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Most Wanted | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.58 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Kalmychata | 52c | 214.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Most Wanted | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…e02abacked Kalmychata | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Kalmychata | 55c | 111.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Most Wanted | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Most Wanted | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Most Wanted | 54c | 92.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f02…8826backed Kalmychata | 35c | 83.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 42cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Most Wanted | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Kalmychata | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Most Wanted | 67c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Most Wanted | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Most Wanted | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Most Wanted | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 39c | 43.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…6b31backed Kalmychata | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Kalmychata | 50c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Kalmychata | 68c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted (BO5)Kalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 1 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 3 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.