Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1368de9574eb3c85f5c445d2d73cb2dc4fa7c4b24a3f73c6148b6ddadf66af93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalmychataof Kalmychata, Most Wanted
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Kalmychata | 66c | 1,748$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.46 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Most Wanted | 33c | 699.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Most Wanted | 44c | 550$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…1b86backed Most Wanted | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Most Wanted | 44c | 458.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Kalmychata | 55c | 390$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Most Wanted | 31c | 275.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Most Wanted | 26c | 158.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kalmychata | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Most Wanted | 49c | 119.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Most Wanted | 28c | 97.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Most Wanted | 35c | 72.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Kalmychata | 78c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Most Wanted | 42c | 63.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…e02abacked Kalmychata | 50c | 53.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Most Wanted | 27c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…a826backed Most Wanted | 49c | 42.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…56b6backed Most Wanted | 34c | 38.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted (BO5)Kalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 2 WinnerKalmychata won
- Dota 2: Kalmychata vs Most Wanted - Game 3 WinnerMost Wanted won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.