Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc798a1b07e722c77931f9abc42fd359ae0d69f3c91440d97f286efe0a03255a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,477$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.31 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,429$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…cb8abacked No | 77c | 608.62$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 78c | 513.09$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 23c | 437$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed Yes | 19c | 189.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…ba8bbacked Yes | 16c | 181.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed Yes | 24c | 129.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 18c | 107.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 23c | 90.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 22c | 88.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 18c | 79.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 23c | 67.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 17c | 60.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…0677backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 77c | 40.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 78c | 30.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
- Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.