CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7aae0292afa740ba9cd5d81357e5cf7d62ef49e675ffcb50907cfb984663c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lavkedof illwill, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lavked | 67c | 2,742$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.93 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…0b28backed illwill | 43c | 1,115$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.34 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed illwill | 28c | 760.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Lavked | 57c | 570.8$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.11 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Lavked | 64c | 500.23$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed illwill | 35c | 392.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed illwill | 15c | 389.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 42c | 319.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Lavked | 77c | 317.02$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed illwill | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked illwill | 47c | 298.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked | 53c | 282.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed illwill | 15c | 270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked illwill | 45c | 248.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked illwill | 14c | 230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked illwill | 18c | 154$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed illwill | 35c | 144.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lavked | 47c | 125.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Lavked | 49c | 123.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 416 | 40.6%169 W · 247 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 34c | 119.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed illwill | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Lavked | 73c | 89.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed illwill | 41c | 82.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed illwill | 15c | 77.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed illwill | 29c | 73.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Lavked | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…f1c6backed Lavked | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed illwill | 37c | 47.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked illwill | 31c | 45.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed illwill | 32c | 44.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed illwill | 53c | 40.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Lavked | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Lavked | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Lavked | 64c | 34.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Lavked | 50c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lavked | 67c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed illwill | 58c | 25.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Lavked | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Lavked | 71c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 61cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Lavked - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Lavked (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLavked won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Lavked - Map 1 WinnerLavked won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.