MLB · resolved market
NL Wildcard: Padres vs. Braves Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7effb08fe51a8535dff8ea9b9c0bfdbdc2530548f9e94bae2a6453b98e7ad13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Padres | 51c | 3,900$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Padres | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Braves | 47c | 3,200$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Braves | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Padres | 53c | 937.6$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.6 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Padres | 53c | 869.81$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.81 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Braves | 46c | 806.49$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.99 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Braves | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Padres | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Braves | 47c | 202.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Padres | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Braves | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…7d75backed Braves | 47c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Padres | 63c | 70.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Braves | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Braves | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Braves | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…da3ebacked Braves | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…17b1backed Padres | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Padres | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Padres | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.