Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Holt vs. Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7f87c42d80116bd091d13c9634ef8507d99b879b2a43e9f190e35f8cb50703f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokina of Holt, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Holt | 20c | 5,375$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Holt | 18c | 2,143$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.67 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Fokina | 80c | 1,875$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.09 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Holt | 9c | 1,453$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Fokina | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holt | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Holt | 20c | 399.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Holt | 26c | 380.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Fokina | 80c | 312.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Holt | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked Holt | 22c | 160.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fokina | 78c | 151.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fokina | 80c | 132.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fokina | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fokina | 77c | 117.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Fokina | 76c | 103.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Holt | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Holt | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Holt | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Holt | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Holt | 22c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Holt | 22c | 51.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Fokina | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.