Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80b5ea49ce8fbded50d43d4ff5b224cfe3448a9531be4fbd9175f45cb840db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 0c | 4,783$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,389$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,059$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 861.42$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 810.46$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 6c | 703.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 9c | 580.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 567.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 11c | 468.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 423.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 5c | 409.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 373.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…377abacked Yes | 12c | 352.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 291.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 70c | 275.45$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 8c | 247.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d9b8backed Yes | 12c | 242.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 19c | 200.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed Yes | 21c | 196.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 179.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 12c | 173.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 15c | 156.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 71c | 156.87$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 149.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 20c | 137.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 137.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 22c | 135.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 17c | 135.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 8c | 125.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed Yes | 24c | 113.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 108.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 101.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 12c | 101.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…ee84backed Yes | 15c | 96.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 92.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 87.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 85.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 17c | 82.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 14c | 76.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 72c | 74.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 63.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 20c | 53.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 21c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 45.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 41.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 68c | 32.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 29.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 78c | 24.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 24.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked No | 72c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 22.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 78c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 68c | 21.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 21.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed No | 71c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 19.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 72c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 76c | 15.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 80c | 14.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked No | 80c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.