TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked No49c3,405$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.2130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a7…62ddbacked No1c1,557$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c1,010$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No12c1,004$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.0257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c596.76$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.836,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No11c494.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3233620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c467.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes71c381.68$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3120631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No16c349.56$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c331.82$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.921,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No43c323.35$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.034,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes34c308.76$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.7315545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No69c271.32$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes54c252.22$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4329459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes57c237.71$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8772952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No27c236.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0216740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes39c227.87$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes41c222.98$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c222.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.391,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c204.52$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.157,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No41c200.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.791,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c197.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.772,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No58c176.89$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.627167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes37c164.39$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.381,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No21c152.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes75c152.21$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.59747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes38c148.54$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.531,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No69c137.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes39c135.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.717939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes39c133.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4225239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec2…d502backed Yes67c129.11$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes37c128.23$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.45119.6%10 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No58c122.33$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9562555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes41c119.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.93441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c118.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes69c116.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8813554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes64c116.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.46041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes42c113.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.614341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c113.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.693,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x609f…ada6backed Yes63c104.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…6c10backed Yes67c101.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.461323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5441767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.58762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacad…ee84backed Yes34c99.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.811250%6 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+49.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa74f…25c0backed No69c97.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.852458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes33c97.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476d…ceecbacked Yes37c95.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9218615.6%29 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes47c93.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6632352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No18c93.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.531,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No16c92.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc907…020fbacked Yes29c90.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.314452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes19c88.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.613333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6825…836abacked Yes64c87.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.791553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes35c85.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.891,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes34c83.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4945619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed Yes70c82.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.710059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No62c77.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6915558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb6…85afbacked Yes30c76.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.311770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c75.19$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.953,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes48c73.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.051,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes21c73.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9931029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5eb…1e17backed Yes58c72.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721c…a939backed No50c71.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe21…f884backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.83026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb14…0da7backed Yes37c69.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7524921.3%53 W · 196 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No53c65.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6314025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c64.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No55c64.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.631,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes37c62.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8229640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes49c62.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes51c62.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No63c61.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.171,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No44c60.28$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…74fdbacked Yes48c59.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes60c58.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2829953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No55c55.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.522,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes37c53.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0619160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes34c53.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.384032.5%13 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No25c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1915937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…705dbacked No29c52.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c52.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3614332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes40c49.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fdc…a29abacked No47c49.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes49c48.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.958643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d78…5678backed Yes39c48.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.853834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c63…fafebacked Yes56c47.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.262828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes55c47.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3511637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa055…7ffcbacked Yes41c46.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948f…1215backed Yes71c45.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.011457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7368…6e6dbacked Yes35c45.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.352330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ae…7bc6backed No73c44.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.764761.7%29 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.