Tennis · resolved market
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Inaki Montes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc84150b6cc0eee4703fb4d3658051e079aad2ab1db97a35c26e2dbdfd8c75b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inaki Montesof Daniel Michalski, Inaki Montes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Inaki Montes | 55c | 1,401$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Daniel Michalski | 49c | 1,093$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Daniel Michalski | 49c | 1,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Inaki Montes | 51c | 874.36$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…1eb3backed Daniel Michalski | 36c | 821.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 179 | 41.3%74 W · 105 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Inaki Montes | 54c | 564.59$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.13 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Inaki Montes | 64c | 517.24$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.24 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…f4ddbacked Daniel Michalski | 56c | 422.64$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Daniel Michalski | 48c | 277.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…9385backed Daniel Michalski | 57c | 264.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Inaki Montes | 52c | 252.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Daniel Michalski | 39c | 241$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Inaki Montes | 66c | 236.06$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Daniel Michalski | 34c | 236.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Daniel Michalski | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Inaki Montes | 58c | 121$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Daniel Michalski | 40c | 113.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Daniel Michalski | 37c | 109.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Daniel Michalski | 37c | 107.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Inaki Montes | 63c | 82.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Daniel Michalski | 53c | 80.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Daniel Michalski | 53c | 77.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Inaki Montes | 65c | 77.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Daniel Michalski | 42c | 71.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Daniel Michalski | 49c | 67.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Daniel Michalski | 38c | 65.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Daniel Michalski | 38c | 62.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Daniel Michalski | 37c | 54.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Daniel Michalski | 30c | 46.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Daniel Michalski | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Daniel Michalski | 53c | 39.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Inaki Montes | 56c | 39.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Inaki Montes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Daniel Michalski | 35c | 34.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Inaki Montes | 65c | 34.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Inaki Montes | 62c | 28.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Inaki Montes | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Inaki Montes | 63c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Inaki Montes | 51c | 20.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Inaki Montes | 64c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Inaki Montes | 57c | 19.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Inaki Montes | 63c | 17.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.