UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc868e36505e1feacc0c82432962ada89fcaa7ed6a4db8e9364f24b436c0c3501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Over | 64c | 2,936$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Under | 36c | 2,777$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.24 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 35c | 1,029$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.78 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 37c | 662.95$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.59 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 64c | 385.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 66c | 360$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 37c | 115.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 37c | 74.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Over | 64c | 64.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 59.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Over | 64c | 59.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…e829backed Over | 64c | 45.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 36c | 36.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…362bbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…1828backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…103bbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…2613backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d6…5e9bbacked Over | 64c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…6fe4backed Over | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed Over | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…06a4backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 329: Cody Durden vs. Alessandro Costa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)Alessandro Costa won
- Will Alessandro Costa win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.