IPO · resolved market
Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 700 million and 1 billion?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc870b625bc59d9d429c44912f9fda23b141e0ad4287ea4dfd3f42f9485360c18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4034…b704backed Yes | 51c | 15,500$7,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,595 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…19f1backed No | 49c | 15,500$7,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,595 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 2c | 757.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…dc1bbacked Yes | 67c | 216.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a9…8266backed Yes | 47c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 59c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 51.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 62c | 41.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 39c | 35.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 700 million and 1 billion?this page
- Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be below 700 million?No won
- Will MapLight Therapeutics Inc IPO closing market capitalization be between 1 billion and 1.3 billion?No won
- Will MapLight not IPO by December 31, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.