World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc871a4c5b762308beb88878afa928c91b3f0a13da18d15e9506381c31c584253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…9d68backed No | 53c | 501.06$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 457.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 418.17$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.69 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 66c | 417.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.76 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 215.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 30c | 143.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 46c | 103.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 100.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 51c | 85.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 32c | 75.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 52c | 73.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 29c | 49.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 47.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 50c | 44.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 55c | 43.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…8d6abacked Yes | 50c | 42.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 72c | 37.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 38c | 36.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 33.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 42c | 30.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 20.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 19.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 64c | 19.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 66c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.