Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88d8ccc88bc16c03f5bb3a16cd139134f9e5a3fa756b0bf28ae19579a72248e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 3,923$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.63 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 3,180$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.46 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,223$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.27 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 1,155$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.86 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 34c | 299.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 15c | 290.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 232.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 35c | 220.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 33c | 199.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 66c | 155.25$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…3f48backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 140.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 126.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Over | 33c | 125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed Under | 67c | 111.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 38c | 87.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -12.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 59c | 72.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 15c | 71.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 63c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 39c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.