Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4781f4da6fa84fe0d89142af7efa3540517c2fd4ec5035b12a79564e0edd9c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 9c | 7,082$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.64 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 9c | 3,355$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.93 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 772.18$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.48 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 666$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 406.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 28c | 360.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b96cbacked Over | 62c | 329.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 34c | 320$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 69c | 296.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 189.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 158.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 398 | 52.5%209 W · 189 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 85.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 48.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 71c | 42.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 44c | 39.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 79c | 37.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…b088backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.