Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc895639e573fefaba104942a34a8a7a0c7bef616b459002b3f3f030c17b6de2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 379.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 288.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 74c | 171.38$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 153.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 51c | 126.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed No | 64c | 112.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 112.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 64c | 111.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked No | 74c | 96.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 23c | 88.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 82.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 46c | 74.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 23c | 69.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 57c | 57.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 54.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 52.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 38c | 51.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 51.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…4e14backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 73c | 42.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 35c | 40.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…ae11backed Yes | 79c | 40.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 63c | 40.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 38.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 51c | 37.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 35.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 44c | 28.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 56c | 20.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 72c | 18.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…1405backed Yes | 78c | 14.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.