Lol · resolved market
Will Top Esports make a roster change before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d1ea43ada762ae6d7a54a63cace2c586f41a03b1e798c932fe98e8e1565113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7853…2d49backed No | 52c | 761.76$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.52 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…00ecbacked Yes | 75c | 599.95$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 297.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 181 | 21%38 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…dfa9backed Yes | 47c | 234.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 304 | 53.3%162 W · 142 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a2…7cbbbacked Yes | 72c | 219.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes | 36c | 175$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 117.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 25c | 106.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 470 | 47.4%223 W · 247 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…0d7cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 675 | 53.5%361 W · 314 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 63c | 90.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 38c | 58.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…3c05backed Yes | 39c | 51.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 379 | 50.9%193 W · 186 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.